VeroFORECAST Sees Western Housing Markets Struggle, While Those Further East Shine

Today, Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®), an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, released its 2023 Q2 VeroFORECAST^SM that anticipates a strengthening housing market for the next year. Home prices, on average, are expected to increase 1.7% over the next 12 months compared to a flat forecast last quarter – signaling a possible light at the end of the tunnel.

VeroFORECAST evaluates home prices in over three hundred of the nation’s largest housing markets, and Veros is committed to the data science of predicting home value based on rigorous analysis of the fundamentals and interrelationships of numerous economic, housing, and geographic variables pertaining to home value.

The housing market is trapped in a state of low supply as many homeowners are keeping a tight grip on their rock-bottom mortgage rates. With the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes due to receding inflation, mortgage rates are projected to hover around 6.5% to 7%. Some buyers have started to warm up to these rates and are returning to the market, driving prices higher. However, buyers are still seeking affordability.

While the Western markets, once the darlings of the real estate world, display signs of weakness, the Midwest and Eastern states have emerged as hotspots for homebuyers seeking affordability and economic stability. With housing prices still high in many parts of the country, the shift in buyer preferences highlights the desire to seize the American dream without sacrificing financial security.

Some Western markets, like San Francisco and Seattle, are still priced very high despite the recent decline. San Francisco is losing residents, and with the job losses in the hallowed halls of the technology sector, it is no wonder that its once-sizzling real estate market is predicted to remain weak. Austin, Texas, and other former top-performing metros in Utah and Idaho are also expected to stay cool in the coming year.

Cities such as Rochester, New York, Lincoln, Nebraska, and Cincinnati boast thriving economies, diverse industries, and a lower cost of living, making them attractive destinations for individuals and families looking to establish roots. Other top-performing markets are in North Carolina, Ohio, and Kansas. The ten strongest performing markets in the country forecast over the next 12 months are expected to appreciate at the 5% to 6.5% level.

THE 10 STRONGEST-PERFORMING MARKETS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

According to the forecast, the ten least-performing markets are expected to witness a modest depreciation of -2.5% to -4%. This list includes three Texas markets, namely Austin, Brownsville, and Victoria; the expensive metro markets of Seattle and San Francisco; and the relocation destinations of the pandemic, including St. George, Provo-Orem, and Salt Lake City in Utah, as well as Boise, Idaho. Stockton, California, completes the bottom ten list. The rate of depreciation has softened for these markets compared to the previous quarter, as supply has dwindled, and prospective buyers are slowly returning to the market.

THE 10 LEAST-PERFORMING MARKETS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

VeroFORECAST Methodology

The quarterly VeroFORECAST reports to clients by subscription and to industry media in a summary overview. The current report is based on 327 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) data, including 16,869 ZIP codes, 993 counties, and 82% of U.S. residents. The report is a projected increase 12 months forward.

• Download the Q1 2023 – Q1 2024 VeroFORECAST results as a PDF infographic.
• Download the 10 Strongest-Performing Markets graphic only.

Source: Veros Real Estate Solutions

This information is intended for use by the media for economic reporting and should only be used for physical or digital publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, and must be sourced from Veros Real Estate Solutions. The company name must be visible on the screen or website if the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs, or other visual elements. For questions, analysis, interpretation of the data, or permission to reproduce, contact communications@veros.com.

About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling

Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University. He has thirty years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published numerous technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.

About Veros Real Estate Solutions

A mortgage technology innovator since 2001, Veros is a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. The firm combines predictive technology, data analytics, and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated solutions that control risk and increase profits throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination to servicing and securitization. Veros’ services include automated valuation, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. Veros is the primary architect and technology provider of the GSEs’ Uniform Collateral Data Portal® (UCDP®). Veros also works closely with the FHA to support its Electronic Appraisal Delivery (EAD) portal. The company is also making the home-buying process more efficient for our nation’s Veterans through its appraisal management work with the Department of Veterans Affairs. For more information, visit www.veros.com or call 866-458-3767.

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While the Western markets, once the darlings of the real estate world, display signs of weakness, the Midwest and Eastern states have emerged as hotspots for homebuyers seeking affordability and economic stability.