Veros Reports That Its National Housing Market Annual Forecast Goes Negative for the First Time in More Than a Decade

Today, Veros® Real Estate Solutions, an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, released its 2022 Q4 VeroFORECAST^SM that anticipates home prices will turn negative overall and depreciate on average by -0.5% for the next twelve months. This is a significant drop from the 1.5% annual appreciation forecast just one quarter ago.

VeroFORECAST evaluates home prices in over 300 of the nation’s largest housing markets. Veros is committed to the data science of predicting home value based on rigorous analysis of the fundamentals and interrelationships of numerous economic, housing and geographic variables pertaining to home value.

Eric Fox, Chief Economist at Veros, commented that, “This decrease to an average depreciation of -0.5% over the next 12 months is the first time in over a decade that Veros’ average house price forecast has gone negative. The last time that the annual forecast was expected to be negative was in 2012 following the aftermath of the previous housing market crash. Though average depreciation is expected now, the fundamentals of the U.S. housing market in 2023 are much better than they were a decade ago. This is not going to be a repeat of what we saw in 2007-2008.”

Extreme depreciation is not expected at this time, though the softening market is a stark contrast to what has been experienced in the previous couple of years.

The number of markets expected to have annual depreciation has grown from a few dozen during last quarter’s update to nearly half of the markets in this update. Though the number of depreciating markets may seem large, many of them are forecast to have only mild depreciation of just a percent or two.

Fox continues by stating, “Interestingly, many markets which were the big housing market winners of the past year or two are now forecast to be some of the worst-performers including San Francisco, Seattle, Austin, Boise, San Jose, and Las Vegas. These markets are all expecting depreciation over the next 12 months which will range from -5% to -7%”

However, many markets and many parts of the country are forecast to do reasonably well with low, single-digit rates of appreciation. The state of North Carolina has five markets in the Top 10, and two middle-of-the-country markets of Wichita and Lincoln are again in the Top 5. Interestingly, the Fort Myers area of Florida, which was hit hard by Hurricane Ian, rocketed into the Top 5 markets in the country due to large demand and limited supply. All of these markets are characterized by lower median prices, meaning rising interest rates have a lesser impact.

The 10 strongest performing markets in the country forecast over the next 12 months are only forecast to appreciate at the 4% to 6% level which is down significantly from what the top performing markets were expected to do just a year or two ago.

The 10 least performing markets over the next 12 months had the most notable changes. In last quarter’s forecast, there were 5 markets forecast to depreciate. However, now all of these 10 markets are forecast to depreciate in the next year.

Download the Q4 2022 – Q4 2023 VeroFORECAST results as a PDF infographic or as an infographic image.

Download the 10 Strongest-Performing Markets graphic only.

VeroFORECAST Methodology

The quarterly VeroFORECAST reports to clients by subscription and to industry media in a summary overview. The current report is based on data from 318 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), including 16,805 ZIP codes, 987 counties, and 82% of US residents. The report is a projected increase 12-months forward.

Source: Veros Real Estate Solutions

This information is intended for use by the media for economic reporting and should only be used for physical or digital publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from Veros Real Estate Solutions. The company name should appear with the first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the company name must be visible on the screen or website. For questions, analysis, interpretation of the data, or permission to reproduce, contact Brian Fluhr at bfluhr@veros.com.

About Eric Fox, VP of Statistical and Economic Modeling

Eric Fox received his M.S. in Statistics and B.S. in Mathematics and Economics from Purdue University and has 30 years of industrial experience in statistical and econometric modeling, probabilistic life methodology development, statistical training, probabilistic design software development, and probabilistic financial/competitive analysis. Fox has published numerous technical papers on probabilistic and statistical methods.

About Veros Real Estate Solutions

A mortgage technology innovator since 2001, Veros is a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. The firm combines the power of predictive technology, data analytics, and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated solutions that control risk and increase profits throughout the mortgage industry, from loan origination to servicing and securitization. In 2022, Veros acquired Valligent Technologies a leader in appraisal, alternative valuation, QC and Regulatory Audit solutions. Veros’ services now include the full spectrum of valuation solutions inclusive of virtual and automated valuations, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral risk management platforms. Veros is the primary architect and technology provider of the GSEs’ Uniform Collateral Data Portal® (UCDP®). Veros also works closely with the FHA to support its Electronic Appraisal Delivery (EAD) portal. The company is also making the home buying process more efficient for our nation’s Veterans through its appraisal management work with the Department of Veterans Affairs. For more information, visit veros.com or call 866-458-3767.

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Eric Fox, Chief Economist at Veros, commented that, “This decrease to an average depreciation of -0.5% over the next 12 months is the first time in over a decade that Veros’ average house price forecast has gone negative."